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Regional Innovation

Research on the Spatiotemporal Evolution, Regional Disparities, and Obstacle Factors of the Development of New Quality  Productive Forces in the Yellow River Basin 

Lin Yuanchun1, 2 , Zhang Xinyu2

(1.Henan Academy of Social Sciences, Zhengzhou 451464, China; 2.School of Politics and Public Administra⁃ tion, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China)

Abstract: As a region of major national strategic importance, the coordinated development  of new quality productive forces in the Yellow River Basin is vital to implement national strate⁃ gies for ecological security and high-quality economic development. Based on panel data of  eight provinces (autonomous regions) in the Yellow River Basin from 2012 to 2023, this study  considers the basin's ecological constraints and industrial endowment characteristics to con⁃ struct a comprehensive evaluation system of new quality productive forces with 30 specific indi⁃ cators. Using the entropy method, kernel density estimation, Moran's I, Dagum Gini coefficient  and its decomposition, and obstacle degree model, this paper systematically measures the devel⁃ opment level of new quality productive forces and identifies its temporal dynamic evolution, spa⁃ tial agglomeration pattern, sources of regional disparities, and core restrictive barriers. The re⁃ sults show that: ①In terms of temporal evolution, driven by innovation-driven development, digi⁃ tal economy integration, and high-quality development policies, the overall level of new quality  productive forces in the Yellow River Basin presents an upward trend. Influenced by natural en⁃ dowments, industrial foundations, and development conditions, downstream regions maintain sig⁃ nificantly higher development levels than the middle and upper reaches, showing prominent re⁃ gional imbalance. ② Spatially, new quality productive forces exhibit a significant positive ag⁃ glomeration effect. Provinces with similar development levels cluster geographically; downstream  areas form "high-high" agglomeration zones and upper reaches form "low-low" agglomeration  zones. Local spatial heterogeneity exists. Although interconnected, provinces face obvious coor⁃ dination barriers and unsmooth factor transmission. ③The regional gaps of new quality produc⁃ tive forces follow a U-shaped trend. After short-term convergence, differentiated regional growth  widens disparities again. Super-variation density analysis proves inter-regional disparity domi⁃ nates spatial differentiation, and the gap between upper and lower reaches is most significant. ④ Lagging green energy transition and insufficient innovation transformation efficiency are core  constraints. Imperfect inter-provincial innovation transformation systems and inadequate policy  coordination cause systemic blockages. Accordingly, three suggestions are proposed: first, adopt  differentiated development strategies tailored to upper, middle and lower reaches to narrow re⁃ gional gaps; second, improve basin-wide coordination mechanisms and build cross-regional in⁃ novation networks to promote mobility of new-type factors; third, expand green factor inputs to  upgrade industrial structure, leverage digital empowerment to remove core constraints and ad⁃ vance coordinated development of new quality productive forces in the Yellow River Basin. 

Key words: new quality productive forces; Yellow River Basin; regional disparities; spatial  correlation; obstacle degree model; digital economy; scientific and technological innovation; greening