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Science & Technology Strategy and Policy

Spatiotemporal Evolution and Influencing Factors of the Cou⁃ pling Coordination Between Low-Carbon Economy and  Technological Innovation in China 

Pan Qidong, Yin Kelong, Zhang Yongheng

(School of Finance and Economics, Henan Polytechnic University, Jiaozuo 454003, China)

Abstract: Under the dual-carbon goals, a low-carbon economy empowers technological in⁃ novation, while technological innovation, in turn, drives the development of a low-carbon  economy, both serving as core pathways for achieving sustainable development in China. Based  on panel data from 30 provincial-level administrative regions spanning 2011 to 2023, this study  first constructs indicator systems for assessing low-carbon economy and technological innova⁃ tion, and applies the entropy-weighted TOPSIS method to quantify them. Subsequently, a cou⁃ pling coordination degree model is employed to evaluate the coupling coordination level between  low-carbon economy and technological innovation, with descriptive analysis conducted on the re⁃ sults. Further, the Dagum Gini coefficient decomposition method and spatial autocorrelation  models are utilized to examine spatial disparities and spatial autocorrelation in the coupling coor⁃ dination. Finally, a spatial Durbin model is adopted to investigate the influencing factors. The  findings reveal that: ①The coupling coordination degree between low-carbon economy and tech⁃ nological innovation has exhibited a continuous upward trend across provinces over time, yet  growth rates display a tiered pattern—fastest in the eastern region, followed by the central, north⁃ eastern, and western regions. Spatially, a three-tier structure has emerged: the eastern region as  the upper tier, the central region as the middle tier, and the western and northeastern regions as  the lower tier, demonstrating a diffusion trend from the eastern core to peripheral regions. ②Sig⁃ nificant spatial disparities exist in the coupling coordination, with an overall Gini coefficient that  has been expanding, primarily driven by inter-regional differences, followed by intra-regional  disparities, and with hypervariable density contributing the least. ③The coupling coordination  exhibits significant positive spatial autocorrelation, characterized by high-high agglomeration in  the eastern region and low-low agglomeration in the western region. ④Regarding influencing  factors, the economic development level, technology market activity, and fiscal support exert  positive effects on both local and neighboring regions' coupling coordination. The financial de⁃ velopment level and the Theil index positively influence the local region but show no significant  impact on neighboring areas. Energy structure has no significant local effect but exhibits a posi⁃ tive spillover effect on neighboring regions. Based on these findings, this study proposes three  policy recommendations: first, establishing a cross-regional collaborative development mecha⁃ nism for low-carbon economy and technological innovation to address structural imbalances be⁃ tween core and peripheral regions; second, optimizing the spatial layout and energy coordination  of coupling coordination to amplify spatial spillover effects; third, tailoring key driving factors to  local conditions to enhance endogenous momentum for coupling coordination. 

Key words: low-carbon economy; technological innovation; coupling coordination degree  model; spatiotemporal evolution; spatial Durbin model; regional disparity; driving factors; sus⁃ tainable development