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"New Quality Productive Forces and High-level Science & Technology Self-reliance and self-strengthening" Column

On the Theoretical and Practical Logic of "Tolerance for Failure"  in Key Core Technologies Innovation 

Gong Lei1 , Wang Zhuoyue1 , Palida Kerimu2 , Liu Zhiying3

(1.Alibaba Business School, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121, China; 2. Department of National  Governance, Party School of the C.P.C Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region Committee (Xinjiang Uygur Autono⁃ mous Region Academy of Governance), Urumqi 830000, China; 3.School of Management, University of Science  and Technology of China, Hefei 230026, China)

Abstract: Key core technology innovation is a crucial support for winning the initiative in in⁃ ternational strategic competition and cultivating new quality productive forces. The "chokepoint"  technologies and "game-changing" technologies involved are characterized by high uncertainty, long development cycles, high failure rates, and high knowledge complexity, which determines  that their breakthrough and emergence depend on an innovation ecosystem of "encouraging inno⁃ vation and tolerating failure". This paper focuses on two core propositions: "why we should toler⁃ ate failure" and "how to build an ecosystem that supports tolerance for failure", and conducts re⁃ search from both theoretical and practical dimensions. At the theoretical logic level, for the  breakthrough of "chokepoint" technologies, based on organizational learning theory, this paper  points out that tolerance for failure helps to achieve the incremental conquest of "chokepoint"  technologies by reinforcing goal-oriented iterative learning cycles (trial, feedback, and iteration). For the forging of "game-changing" technologies, based on random search theory, tolerance for  failure ensures goal-free exploration, constructs a broad search space characterized by Lévy  flight, and retains key cross-domain mutation opportunities while deepening local search, thus  providing the possibility for forging "game-changing" technologies. At the level of practical di⁃ lemmas, this paper analyzes the practical difficulties faced by China. First, societal cognition has  not yet fully embraced a rational understanding of technological uncertainty. Second, institu⁃ tional arrangements continue to exhibit tensions between long-term innovation incentives and  short-term performance evaluations. Third, mismatches persist between the supply structure of  financial markets and the risk profile of innovation activities. To overcome these constraints, this  paper draws lessons from the failure-tolerant cultures and institutional practices of leading inno⁃ vation economies such as the United States, Germany, and Japan. In light of China's specific de⁃ velopmental context, it proposes a systematic ecological framework encompassing four dimen⁃ sions: innovation actors, cultural environment, institutional systems, and capital support. At the  actor level, the framework advocates establishing a bounded-failure-tolerance governance  mechanism that achieves a dynamic balance between tolerance and accountability. At the cul⁃ tural level, it calls for fostering a social consensus that encourages a pioneering spirit and ratio⁃ nal attitudes toward failure. At the institutional level, it recommends constructing flexible perfor⁃ mance evaluation systems and phased fault-tolerance procedures. At the capital level, it empha⁃ sizes developing patient capital pools and risk-sharing mechanisms aligned with the structural  characteristics of innovation risk. 

Key words: tolerance for failure; innovation tolerance; key core technology innovation; pa⁃ tient capital; "chokepoint" technologies; new quality productive forces; Sci-Tech finance; tech⁃ nological self-reliance