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"New Quality Productive Forces and High-level Science & Technology Self-reliance and Self-strengthening" Column

The Impact of New Quality Productive Forces on China's Carbon  Neutrality Capacity: A Spatial Spillover and Spatial Attenuation  Boundary Analysis Shi Xiongtian

(School of Business Administration and Tourism Management, Yunnan University, Kunming 650500, China)

Abstract: New quality productive forces, as a crucial driver of the green low-carbon transfor⁃ mation, play a vital role in achieving the carbon neutrality goal. This paper explores the impact  of new quality productive forces on China's carbon neutrality capacity, focusing on their roles in  the supply side, demand side, and industrial agglomeration pathways, while revealing the charac⁃ teristics of regional disparities, spatial spillover effects, and spatial attenuation boundaries. The  research findings are as follows: ①New quality productive forces significantly enhance China's  carbon neutrality capacity. On the supply side, green technological innovation, scale effects, and  industrial structure optimization each have complex effects on carbon neutrality. On the demand  side, differences in urban and rural consumption structures indicate that urban consumption up⁃ grading has a significant negative impact on carbon neutrality. In terms of industrial agglomera⁃ tion, agricultural agglomeration, industrial agglomeration, and high-tech industry agglomeration  all exhibit significant single-threshold effects, meaning that once the agglomeration level ex⁃ ceeds a certain threshold, its positive impact on carbon neutrality becomes significantly stronger, particularly in the case of high-tech industry agglomeration technology-intensive industries in the green low-carbon transformation , which reflects the critical role of  . ②The eastern region  benefits the most, owing to its higher level of digitalization and better infrastructure; the central  and western regions, as well as areas with lower levels of the digital economy, have greater poten⁃ tial for improvement; while the northeastern region, due to the decline in its industrial base, shows unstable effects from new quality productive forces. The heterogeneity analysis of carbon  neutrality capacity indicates that new quality productive forces have a more significant impact in  regions with weak low-carbon foundations, particularly in areas with low carbon emission reduc⁃ tion and carbon removal capacities, where new quality productive forces can significantly im⁃ prove carbon neutrality. ③ Spatial spillover effects show significant distance characteristics: negative effects within 100 to 600 kilometers, a "decline then rise" dynamic effect between 600 and 800 kilometers, and positive effects beyond 800 kilometers. Based on these findings, this pa⁃ per suggests strengthening regional industrial coordination, optimizing production and consump⁃ tion structures, enhancing the diffusion of green technologies, and improving the management of  spatial spillover effects to support the achievement of the "dual carbon" goals and green develop⁃ ment. Finally, this paper offers four specific improvement recommendations: first, strengthen  technological innovation and industrial structure optimization; second, promote the upgrading of  green consumption; third, optimize the regional coordination development mechanism; fourth, en⁃ hance the management of spatial spillover effects. 

Key words: new quality productive forces; carbon neutrality capacity; green development；in⁃ dustrial agglomeration； spatial spillover effects; spatial attenuation boundaries； artificial intelli⁃ gence； green economy